| SNP needs to wake up to Trident reality |
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The split up of the UK military is increasingly the elephant in the room both for the SNP and the establishment down south. The process is fraught with difficulties and the consequences of such magnitude that the SNP don't want to address the issue in any detail because, frankly they just don't know what the end result will be, and the MOD has its head firmly stuck in the sand preying it will all just go away. Even supposing there is an amicable split up of conventional forces and that is far from certain with military big hitters like Mike Jackson insisting it's their ball and they'll be keeping it. The ultimate woolly mammoth will still be sitting in the corner, Trident. Perhaps it is time the SNP grasped the real politik around this issue and admitted, which I'm sure a lot of them already do privately, that hell will freeze over before the English establishment relinquishes their nuclear facility at Faslane. With a decision to renew already taken there are no options, keeping the deterrent means keeping it at Faslane. For starters it would cost tens of billions and years of upheaval to move and even if English taxpayers could stomach the relocation costs where would they go? Partly the reason the government settled on an underwater nuclear deterrent back in the 1960s was that the west coast sea lochs were tailor made for berthing and repairing large submarines. There is no where else comparable in the UK. Would an independent government simply think the Royal Navy will pack up and leave if they're asked nicely? The establishment holds all the cards. If some settlement is not negotiated to have them remain, they could simply refuse to leave and declare the area overseas sovereign territory similar to way they did with Akrotiri and Dhekelia when Cyprus was granted independence. What exactly could the new Scottish government do about it complain to the UN? Sink them as they leave Holy Loch on patrol? Possession as they say is 9/10ths of the law and England could legitimately argue a case in international law that moving the base would compromise their national security. It could turn into a Falklands type stand off. Hardly the ideal way to usher in a new area of partnership and mutual respect. What the SNP don't want to admit is that probably the best all round solution is to follow the precedent set by the Soviet Union when they dismantled their forces. In order to keep their Black Sea fleet port at Sevastopol they offered significant cash incentives to the Ukraine. Now that the rhetoric is in danger of becoming reality, ask the First Minister if he is still 100% committed to getting rid of Trident from Faslane as a top priority in an independent Scotland? I think he would have a hard time looking you straight in the eye if his answer was yes. |