Lawyers only likely winners of referendum spat
Alex Salmond's attempts to woo the populace to independence through the means of a referendum seem to have struck the first real hurdle, the legality of it all.

Under the Scotland Act it would appear that, as Prime Minister Cameron argues, any referendum organised without the consent of Westminster would indeed under the eyes of the law, be illegal.

Whether such a referendum was promised in the SNP manifesto seems to be neither here nor there according to the majority of legal thinking.

But at least the row is at last wakening up the rest of the UK to the fact the Union is indeed on the brink of the greatest schism for 300 years. Westminster can so longer ignore the issue as a mere nuisance and the Unionists first line of defence is the law.

According to one of the country's foremost constitutional lawyers Cameron Fyfe if a referendum was officially announced, anyone could go to the Court of Session and request a pre-emptive ruling that any referendum would be unlawful thus blocking the organisation of one. Even if the Scottish government won that round, the issue could then be taken to the Supreme Court. A legal fog that could drag on for years.

Now the SNP could have a public relations inspired national opinion poll, but that is not the same as a referendum, which is a very precise legally binding constitutional tool for by-passing the decision making powers of elected representatives.

Supposing though Mr Salmond chose to ignore any bothersome legal rulings and organised a referendum anyway. Well, if the result was a 'Yes' for independence, his only choice then if he wanted to press on with separation would be a to declare a 'Unilateral Declaration of Independence'. A decision that would turn the country into a sort of 21st century Rhodesia, in the eyes of international law, an illegal country.

But Mr Salmond might be playing a more subtle long game. For if the subject gets mired up in London's Supreme Court and the time-scale for a 2014 referendum passes, then Mr Salmond will then hold out untill after the next UK election in May 2015, hoping that the Tories win by a significant margin. He will then be able to fight the next Holyrood election in 2016 on a 'who really rules Scotland' ticket. If he wins, which surely he would be odds on to do, his position would be stronger than ever. He'll have an overwhelming mandate to rule, with a referendum as policy centre piece,  but still being blocked by a London based court. Westminster holding out in such circumstances seems unthinkable and the momentum would be with the Nationalists.

One thing for sure if an agreement isn't brokered between Salmond and Cameron the only certain winners will be the lawyers.

 
Comments (1)
1 Friday, 13 January 2012 11:20
David A Bell
Sage words. We live in interesting times

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