A leaked CIA document has opened up the debate on just how far the US will go to hold together the fragile NATO alliance fighting in Afghanistan.

For them the fall of the Dutch Government over its troop commitment to Afghanistan demonstrates the fragility of the European appetite for the Afghan mission.

But the CIA has identified a series of PR initiatives to keep the Euro electorate on side and it has Afghan women at its heart. 

Some NATO states, notably France and Germany, have so far counted on public apathy about Afghanistan to increase their contributions to the mission, but indifference might turn into active hostility if spring and summer fighting results in even more casualties the danger is a Dutch style spilling over to neighbouring countries.

Berlin and Paris currently maintain the third and fourth highest International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) troop levels, despite the opposition of 80 percent of German and French respondents to increased ISAF deployments, according to INR polling late last year.

If some forecasts of a bloody summer in Afghanistan come to pass, passive French and German dislike of their troop presence could turn into active and politically potent hostility.

‘Tailoring messaging could forestall or at least contain any backlash against mounting casualties. Western European publics might be better prepared to tolerate a spring and summer of greater military and civilian casualties if they perceive clear connections between outcomes in Afghanistan and their own priorities.’

This means implementing consistent strategic communications programme across NATO troop contributors that will tap into the specific European concerns.
 
In France the CIA recommends focusing on civilians and refugees. Getting messages out that the NATO presence benefits Afghan civilians by using concrete examples to limit and perhaps even reverse opposition to the mission.

In Germany the problem is that Afghanistan it not seen as a German problem at all

Here the CIA recommends playing on the fear factor. If the mission is not a success it will be Germans in Germany who will be put at risk.

Central to all this will be the use of Afghan women as messengers in humanising the ISAF role. Their ability to speak personally and credibly about their experiences under the Taliban and their aspirations for the future are seen as strong persuaders by the CIA.

They see outreach initiatives that create media opportunities for Afghan women to share their stories with French, German, and other European women could help to overcome pervasive scepticism among women in Western Europe toward the ISAF mission.

Media events that feature testimonials by Afghan women would probably be most effective if broadcast on programmes that have large and disproportionately female audiences.

But PR success relies on the effectiveness of the military campaign.

One misdirected bomb onto an Afghan school negates a hundred female testimonials in the eyes of an already deeply sceptical public.
 
The CIA PR machine could be effective in keeping people onside but only on the back of military competency.