Sources at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the department responsible for looking after UK citizens abroad, suggest it now has detailed plans in place for flying back murder victims from next month’s World Cup in South Africa.

The authorities are now firmly of the opinion it is a question of when and not if, at least one English football fan meets an untimely end over the course of the tournament.

This is the nightmare scenario the South African government is staring in the face.

Ever since winning the right to host the tournament, Africa’s first, the Pretoria government has worked tirelessly to make it a success. They are keenly aware that the eyes of the world will be on them, if they pull it off it would have enormous potential for tourism and inward investment.
 
But TV pictures of innocent fans lying gunned down in the street would confirm what the sceptics have thought all along, that even the continent’s richest nation cannot yet be trusted to run showpiece events, Africa is just not safe.

At first glance the omens for them pulling it off fatality free are not good.

Latest available statistics show that with 739 murders per one million people, South Africa has the highest murder rate of any country in the world. In real terms, that is give or take, around 35,000 murders every year and that’s just those that are reported.

This is almost the same number of people who died fighting the Boer War over this very territory more than 100 years ago, although it took the British and the Boers around three years to reach the same bloody total.

So it would appear the scene is set. The followers of the beautiful game are heading into a war zone.

But raw statistics don’t always tell the whole story. Any potential visitor to Glasgow for instance might think they should be in fear of their lives visiting the city.

Glasgow with 72 murders per million people has the worst murder record of any city in Western Europe.

Its citizens are four times more likely to die a violent death than the Scottish average. Even with its appalling record of gun crime, the average in America is only 55 per million.

Now this might make uncomfortable reading for the city elders, but the reality is such bad press hasn’t stopped visitors coming in their thousands and for that matter safely leaving again. The city is now the second most popular short break destination in the UK and according to travellers’ bible the Lonely Planet Guide 2009 it is one of the world’s top 10 cities to visit.

Glasgow’s violence although very real for those directly affected by it is largely geographically confined and usually related to other criminal activity such as drugs. Visitors with any common sense know that random violence against strangers is still thankfully very, very rare and that exercising some common sense will ensure a safe stay.

Glasgow’s success as a tourist destination despite its record of violent crime should bring some reassurance to a South African government becoming increasingly nervous about security issues as the opening ceremony approaches.

It can also take heart from research coming out of South Africa itself.
 
Professors Sanette Ferreira and Ronnie Donaldson of the University of Stellenbosch interviewed 907 foreign tourists at the OR Tambo airport in Johannesburg and Cape Town International Airport. Their findings should reassure anyone making the trip. They found that only 6% of tourists were victims of crime during their trip and less than one percent victims of violent crime.

However, with anything up to one million foreign fans descending on South Africa there is however an inevitability that some tragic misfortune will come to someone.

But life carries risk and for most supporters it will be well worth taking to witness the biggest show on earth, in one of the world’s most beautiful countries welcomed by some of the friendliest people on the planet.

Those of a less adventurous nature could always watch on TV from a hotel room in Berne, Switzerland. Statistics show it to be the safest city in the world; they also make cuckoo clocks and have dancing bears.